Dublin Economic Monitor Summary Q1 April 2017

Dublin Economic Monitor Report Summary
Q 1 – April 2017

The Economic Monitor Report is a quarterly publication. The report is a joint initiative by the four Local Authorities of Dublin in co-ordination with Dublin City Council. DKM  Economic Consultants are producers of the report. KBC/ESRI take a look at how the Dublin consumer feels about Dublin’s economy and MARKIT providing the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) portion of the report.

These quarterly reports seek to give those living and working in the greater Dublin area, a snapshot of how the Dublin economy performs against equivalent other cities, it also helps to inform potential foreign investors to Dublin on the current market conditions. As before this article is only intended to be a brief overview of some of the details of the current report rather than a comprehensive look at it.

If you would like to know more of the details about this particular report or previous reports, you can go to www.dublineconomy.ie  there you can download PDF’s of each report and find out a little more about the Dublin Economic Report and what it seeks to measure.

Main highlights of the current report

  • Dublin’s current unemployment showed a reduction for the second time in Q4 2016,
    it is now below 7% which it had not been for some 8 years.
  • Current house rents in Dublin for houses and apartments have risen in late 2016,
    there is now a noticeable gap between the prices for Dublin and the rest of Ireland as a whole.
  • It has been a strong year for arrivals for Dublin Airport they have now reached a new high of 1.2 million in December 2016.
  • Cargo numbers through Dublin Port remained high – 8.8 million tonnes for the first quarter of 2017, but the number of passengers through it reduced.
  • MARKIT PMI data for Dublin showed a rise for Q1 of 2017, this was created due to
    growth in the services and construction sector.
  • KBC/ESRI Consumer sentiment data for Dublin improved for the first quarter for 2017 as the Dublin population felt that there would be a pick – up in their personal finances and employment prospects.

Summarised from the highlightsDublin Economic Monitor Report – April 2017

 

The Global Economy & Ireland
    &      

Global economic growth is likely to increase to 3.3% this year from 3% in 2016.
U.S  growth is predicted grow to 2.4% in 2017 based on Trump economic policies
an increasing employment market and strong consumer – based demand.

Growth in the UK in 2017 remains uncertain, this is caused by a number of factors the upcoming General Election and its result and also what effect last year’s Brexit vote will translate into economically going forward.

Back at home, National Accounts results for 2016 show current growth at 5.2%.

The Irish Gross Domestic Product was the strongest in the Eurozone for that year.
What was significant was that most sectors of the economy experienced growth.
Forecasts show a softening of GDP growth to 4% this year due to investment and public expenditure moderation. Construction is expected to have a strong role in the economy this year. Forecasts point to a softening of GDP growth to close to 4% in 2017 as investment and public expenditure moderate. The country’s exports are likely to encounter challenges in 2017 as Sterling is predicted to weaken.
The unemployment numbers look positive for 2017 with predictions saying the numbers will likely drop below 7%. At the height of the economic downturn, the numbers had increased to as high at least 15%.

Sources: Central Bank of Ireland, CSO 2008-2016, ESRI QEC 2017 & 2018.

 

Some highlights from the current
KBC / ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX & DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI

Dublin’s consumer sentiment shows a rise in Q1 of 2017.
This shows a recovery when judged against 2016 figures as a whole.
Consumer expectations remain buoyant.
Business output in Dublin shows strong growth.
A speedy growth in new business.

The KBC/ESRI Consumer Index is based on answers from consumers
 about the general economic landscape and that consumers household budget.

A more detailed breakdown of these answers can be sourced on www.kbc.ie/blog

 

Sources:
KBC / ESRI CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX & DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI